Weak thundercloud W of #Karachi, chances of dusty winds with possibility of drizzle/isolated shower till 4 to 5 hours. #KarachiHeat

RT@Sagar_Dh = #Mithi (10:00 pm ) Now Strong lighting in N,E-N side of #Mithi Zone !!

CYCLONE FORMATION IN ARABIAN SEA UPDATE !!!

CYCLONE FORMATION IN ARABIAN SEA UPDATE # 5

As most of our members know that for past few days I'm tracking a Possible cyclone formation in Arabian Sea by early June, So far Latest analysis shows (consists of past 2 days data) that it is now 85% confirmed that a Cyclone will take birth in Arabian sea some where between 6th - 8th June (+/- 2 days error), and it has all the ingredients available to become a powerful system a Possible Super Cyclone!!! but STILL its movements areunknown thou as per the analysis (shown in the pictures below) The Core is moving slowly towards West Northwestern locations means its movement is towards OMAN or PAKISTAN thou these things are only at model stages and the actual is yet to be born hence DO NOT SPREAD ANY PANIC OR RUMORS .!.!

What is interesting now Global forecasting system (GFS) is also showing the formation of a powerful system where as for past 2 weeks since we start tracking it GFS didn't show a single thunder clouds forming over Arabian Sea. GFS is the considered to be one of the best weather forecasting model and is used across the world.

Also as shown in the COLA model (left side) the outer Rain bands of this Beast may effect Coastal belt of Pakistan as well (including Karachi)

Now according to Long Range Wind Farms model analysis a High pressure system will remain over Oman at least till 7th June SO there are bright chances of this Re-curving towards Gujrat / Makran Coast / Sindh Coastal belt and west Coast of India. These assumptions are based on my experience and my discussions with other senior weather experts from Pakistan and India.

P.S: This is not a forecast but model analysis and discussions and their possible outcome.

We are closely following this upcoming developments and will keep updating our members, till then AGAIN DO NOT SPREAD ANY RUMORS AND FEAR.

Edited By: Jawad Jawed
By= Weather updates PK