Tropical Threat looms in Arabian Sea ; India to oman at risk ...

An area of low pressure will become better organized in the coming days and will likely be a named tropical cyclone by this weekend.

A slow drift northward is expected through the weekend keeping the developing cyclone over warm ocean waters and relatively low wind shear.

These conditions will promote further development, and the cyclone will likely reach the equivalent of tropical storm then hurricane strength by early next week.

Weak steering flow across the Arabian Sea early next week will cause the storm to meander northward; however, it remains possible that the storm could take more of a westward track causing it to approach eastern Yemen or Oman.

If the storm continues northward and remains over the Arabian Sea early next week, interaction with a weak trough to the north will continue to pull the cyclone north to northeast with an eventual landfall in Pakistan or northwestern India. 

#mithi - 7:37 am, Cloudly here , more clouds coming to the city from S,W-S and drift to N,E-N .

Arabian Sea Host a Low Pressure ..

APPROXIMATELY 490 NM WEST OF COCHIN, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED
      SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE AREA (ABOUT 800 NM IN DIAMETER) OF
      INTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
      CIRCULATION CENTER. A 221657Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS WEAK
      AND FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING BROADLY WRAPPING TOWARDS THE
      CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN
      A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
      SHEAR OFFSET BY EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR
      IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE
      FOR DEVELOPMENT. NAVGEM AND GFS MODELS FAVOR DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM,
      AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST ARABIAN SEA IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. MAXIMUM
      SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
      LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
      THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
      HOURS IS LOW.