Arabian Sea Host a Low Pressure ..

APPROXIMATELY 490 NM WEST OF COCHIN, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED
      SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE AREA (ABOUT 800 NM IN DIAMETER) OF
      INTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
      CIRCULATION CENTER. A 221657Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS WEAK
      AND FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING BROADLY WRAPPING TOWARDS THE
      CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN
      A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
      SHEAR OFFSET BY EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR
      IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE
      FOR DEVELOPMENT. NAVGEM AND GFS MODELS FAVOR DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM,
      AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST ARABIAN SEA IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. MAXIMUM
      SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
      LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
      THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
      HOURS IS LOW.