TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASINGLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. A 092236Z SSMI 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES INCREASED CONSOLIDATION IN THE LOW LEVELS AS THE SYSTEM
HAS BECOME MORE TIGHTLY WRAPPED WHILE THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF
SYSTEM HAS REMAINED MARGINAL OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS
BASED UPON THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED STRUCTURE SEEN IN THE IMAGERY AS
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW REMAIN AT 30 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
AXIS WITH MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 02A IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
NORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE MID TO DEEP-LAYER REFLECTION OF A
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STR STEERING RIDGE LOCATED OVER INDIA. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO TURN WESTWARD IN THE NEXT DAY AS
ANOTHER STR BUILDS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT
STEERING INFLUENCE. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU
72, REACHING 70 KNOTS, AS EXTREMELY CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND GOOD OUTFLOW CONTINUE. INCREASING VWS AFTER TAU 72,
WILL START A SLOW WEAKENING PROCESS AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH
OMAN. LIMITED NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
WESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TRANSLATIONAL TRACK
SPEED. BASED ON THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 12 FEET ..
