RT@sanjeevnaique : Sun has just appeared here in #Pune with temp. hovering around 26 deg cent with light cool breeze as no sign of rain.!!

Tropical Cyclone Neelofar Tracker ....

1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
         A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
            (1) AT 251200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR) WAS LOCATED NEAR
      13.4N 62.5E, APPROXIMATELY 471 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND,
      AND HAD TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
      MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING
      TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 251500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
            (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
         B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
            (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.6N
      61.1E, IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA.
      1.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS...
            (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.http://ow.ly/i/7lKVg 

LOW PRESSURE IN ARABIAN SEA TURNS INTO DEPRESSION ..

The low pressure system that is prevalent in Arabian Sea has now intensified into a depression. According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the system is expected to further intensify into a deep depression in next 24 hours and further into a cyclonic storm.

At present, the system is over west central and adjoining southwest Arabian Sea and is approximately 1400 km southwest of Mumbai.

As a result entire Maharashtra will witness light to moderate rainfall during the next 24-48 hours. As per Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the maximum temperature will drop and hover around 30°C. http://ow.ly/i/7lxD3

Further, the system is likely to move in west northwest direction and reach southern parts of Oman. After reaching Oman coast, the system may re-curve in northerly to northwesterly direction due to the upper level diversion. Post this, it will reach somewhere between Karachi, Pakistan and Kandla coast in Gujarat by October 29.

This system then might bring rainfall over most parts of Gujarat, western parts of Rajasthan, south Punjab and even south Haryana by October 30.

Earlier this month on October 12, a severe cyclonic storm Hudhud had battered the east coast of India. It had made landfall in Visakhapatnam with maximum sustained winds of upto 190 kmph. Hudhud had triggered massive rainfall in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha .. 

High Chance of Tropical Cyclone formation in the next 24 hrs in Arabain sea ..

61.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 61.1E, APPROXIMATELY 730 NM SOUTH-
      SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
      DEPICTS A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF ORGANIZING DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A
      WIDE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS SLOWLY BECOMING
      BETTER DEFINED. A 241705Z AMSU-B AND 241837Z TRMM (PARTIAL)
      MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS WEAK AND FRAGMENTED BANDING SHOWING
      CONSOLIDATION ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AREA WITH SOME
      CONVECTION AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. ADDITIONALLY, A
      241758Z PARTIAL ASCAT SHOWS SOME 25 KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE
      EXTREME NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
      FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
      SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY UPPER LEVEL
      TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN INDIA. MULTIPLE GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING
      THIS DISTURBANCE INTO A BROAD TROPICAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
      NORTHWEST ARABIAN SEA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
      SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
      PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
      DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
      HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 242200) FOR
      FURTHER DETAILS.

#mithi - 5:43 pm, Cloudly here with some dark clouds , due to #Neelofar effect ...!! 

90-A : Still LOW ; disorganized and tracked W-N-W ... !!

90-A : This is the next Cyclone in the making at Arabian Sea about 1000 kms off the Indian Coast .. 

Tropical Threat looms in Arabian Sea ; India to oman at risk ...

An area of low pressure will become better organized in the coming days and will likely be a named tropical cyclone by this weekend.

A slow drift northward is expected through the weekend keeping the developing cyclone over warm ocean waters and relatively low wind shear.

These conditions will promote further development, and the cyclone will likely reach the equivalent of tropical storm then hurricane strength by early next week.

Weak steering flow across the Arabian Sea early next week will cause the storm to meander northward; however, it remains possible that the storm could take more of a westward track causing it to approach eastern Yemen or Oman.

If the storm continues northward and remains over the Arabian Sea early next week, interaction with a weak trough to the north will continue to pull the cyclone north to northeast with an eventual landfall in Pakistan or northwestern India.